Urban Growth, Rural Land Conversion and the Fiscal Well-Being of Local Municipalities

The economic and fiscal impact of five alternative economic development events are compared and contrasted using a conjoined input-output/econometric modeling system. The five hypothetical events include retail, services (hospital) and manufacturing developments along with two housing developments. For the case study the simulation results suggest that impacts can vary wildly across the types of development and that scenario development plays a key role in the analysis. Along this line, experimental simulations must take care to make scenarios comparable. In the end there are seldom “rules of thumb,” such as the Cost of Community Service Studies (COCS) offered by the American Farmland Trust, which can be applied in the community setting.